How the Middle Kingdom is redrawing the global map of packaging

Our comparative China-Italy analysis, based on exclusive data from the MECS research centre

Luca Baraldi and Generoso Verrusio

 If, in 2026, we persist in reading China’s packaging industry through the familiar lenses of a fast-growing outlet market and a low labour-cost competitor, we risk misreading a far more complex transformation.

The Middle Kingdom is now, more than ever, a player that can claim a leading role in the world of packaging machinery.

The comparison between Italy and China reveals a structural shift that extends beyond sheer volumes, encompassing demand patterns, the nature of competition and the technological positioning of the two countries.

Exclusive data processed by MECS for ItaliaImballaggio outline a scenario in which China continues to expand at an unmatched pace, while Italy – much like Germany – is holding its ground by consolidating leadership in the most mature and advanced markets.

A closing market (and an advancing competitor)

Looking at China as a destination market makes for striking reading. Italian exports of packaging machinery to Beijing fell from €275 million in 2020 to €171 million in 2024, and further down to €134 million in 2025 – a clear halving over five years. Over the same period, Chinese exports to Italy rose from €28 million to more than €43 million: if China is no longer a natural destination for Italian technology, Italy has become an increasingly relevant market for Chinese solutions.

China’s domestic packaging machinery market is now worth €8.2 billion and is expected to approach €10 billion by 2029, growing at an annual rate of 4.1%. It is a vast and highly dynamic production system: exports in the sector rose from €2 billion in 2020 to nearly €3.9 billion in 2025. Italy is also growing, albeit at a more measured and steady pace – from €5 billion in 2020 to €6.6 billion in 2025.

An analysis of the top twenty destination markets for Italian exports in 2025 shows China steadily gaining ground. In India, Beijing reaches €203 million versus Italy’s €155 million. In Brazil, it reaches €62 million while Italy stands at €143 million. In Sweden, China records €13.4 million compared with Italy’s €137 million. In Belgium it approaches €12.2 million against Italy’s €108 million. In Switzerland it exceeds €4.6 million, while Italy falls to €101 million.

In other markets China remains behind in absolute value but is growing rapidly. In Germany, for instance, it rises to €83.5 million while Italy reaches €357 million. In Spain it advances to €44.4 million, compared with Italy’s €343 million. In the United Kingdom it reaches almost €50 million, while Italy stands at €231 million. This pattern reflects China’s ability to secure mid-to-lower segments of the market with an increasingly competitive offer, supported by aggressive pricing and steadily improving perceived quality.

Italy, however, retains its advantage in markets where demand prioritises complex solutions and reliability. In France it remains stable above €426 million, while China stands at €30 million. In Mexico it exceeds €316 million versus China’s €62 million.

Russia, South-East Asia and the Middle East: China’s new frontier

Russia represents perhaps the most striking case in this country-by-country overview. Chinese exports rose from €68 million in 2020 to over €300 million in 2025, while Italy declined from €130 million to €102 million. The gap has reversed, turning the Russian market into one of the main expansion hubs for Chinese technology.

South-East Asia confirms the same trend. In Vietnam, China grows from €119 million to €251 million, while Italy falls from €46 million to €28 million. In Indonesia, China rises from €98 million to €240 million, while Italy declines from €92 million to €53 million. In Thailand, China increases from €87 million to €164 million, with Italy progressing at a slower pace.

In the Gulf region, China is accelerating almost everywhere: in Saudi Arabia it reaches €58.9 million in exports in 2025, while in the United Arab Emirates it records €60.4 million, consolidating a presence that only a few years ago was marginal. In Qatar it exceeds €3.8 million and in Kuwait it approaches €5 million. Italy continues to grow strongly, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where it reaches €94.8 million and €97 million respectively in 2025, but China is advancing more rapidly in relative terms.

The “competitive triangle”

Germany, alongside Italy, ranks among the world’s leading exporters of packaging machinery. Its exports rise from €5.8 billion in 2020 to over €7.8 billion in 2025. In absolute terms, it grows more than both Italy and China.

 The competitive triangle is therefore being reshaped: Germany maintains technological leadership, Italy holds the high-end segment (supported by strong specialisation), while China captures market share in price-sensitive segments.

For Italy’s packaging industry, the challenge is far from straightforward. The comparison with China is not solely about volumes, but about the capacity to interpret a global market that shifts direction and pace repeatedly and – as recent tragic theatres of war have shown – often without warning.