Luxury slows, experience gains value

At the 23rd Altagamma Observatory: global luxury spending showed a slight slowdown (-2%), but remained vibrant, fuelled by consumers' desire for excellence and wellness experiences. The gap between ultra-high-end and aspirational consumption widens. Optimism for 2025.

Milena Bernardi

Following a post-COVID rebound and record-breaking results in 2023, the global luxury market is slowing down, closing 2024 at 1,478 billion - down 2% from the previous year's 1.5 billion. This decline was primarily driven by Asia, with China facing a significantly negative market environment, partly offset by a strong performance in Japan, with other regions remaining largely in line with last year’s results. However, there is a clear polarisation: ultra-high-end consumption remains strong, while aspirational luxury consumption is facing significant challenges, partly due to the younger generation's declining interest in shopping. More specifically, the personal goods sector recorded an estimated turnover of €363 billion compared to €369 billion in 2023. Some product categories, such as beauty, jewellery and eyewear, are experiencing growth.
Meanwhile, experiential luxury continues to grow strongly, showing a solid increase of approximately 5%.
A moderate recovery of around +3% is expected for 2025. The recovery will be driven by experiences (hospitality, fine dining, wellness), along with strong performances in key markets like Europe and America, as well as the continued growth of jewellery and cosmetics.

The data comes from the 23rd Altagamma Observatory, which combines two studies: the Altagamma Consensus 2025, developed with the support of 21 Italian and international financial analysts, and the Altagamma-Bain Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor 2024 by Bain & Company.

Altagamma-Bain Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor 2024

The trend is particularly evident among Generation Z, whose declining interest in luxury brands has contributed to a shrinking luxury customer base, down by approximately 50 million over the past two years. Meanwhile, top-tier customers continue to increase their share of consumption, though they are beginning to perceive a gradual loss of brand exclusivity.

Experiential luxury becomes the real added value
Experiential luxury continues to grow, driven by a shift in consumer spending toward travel, fine dining and social events, as well as a growing preference for personal care and wellness over material goods. Through storytelling, luxury brands can transform products into immersive sensory and cultural experiences, fostering a deeper connection with consumers.

Other key sectors
Ultra-high-end luxury consumers continue to show strong interest in yachts, cars, and private jets. Beauty products, particularly fragrances, remain strong performers, driven by consumers' preference for “small pleasures.” At the same time, eyewear, jewellery and the second-hand luxury market are growing. While most luxury stores are struggling due to a sharp decline in visitor traffic, the outlet channel is outperforming.
Meanwhile, online remains an important sales channel, particularly for brands that can offer immersive, personalised experiences, further expanding in-store engagement.

Geographic trends
In 2024, the United States maintained steady growth despite ongoing economic uncertainty. Outside the U.S., performance was more polarised, with Canada struggling due to a decline in Chinese tourists, while Mexico and Brazil showed positive momentum. Japan continued to lead global luxury growth, benefitting from a favourable exchange rate and increased tourist spending in the first half of 2024.
China, on the other hand, experienced a sharp downturn during the year, driven by a decline in domestic spending. Europe performed well, with demand supported despite more limited tourist inflows in the UK and Northern Europe. Emerging markets, such as Latin America, India, Southeast Asia and Africa, offer potential opportunities for growth, and are collectively expected to add more than 50 million upper-middle class luxury consumers by 2030.
The luxury market is expected to see a gradual improvement throughout 2025, although this will depend on the evolving macroeconomic conditions in key regions. Looking ahead to 2030, the market is likely to enter a period of long-term growth, supported by an expanding consumer base.

Altagamma Consensus: 2025 projections

2025 is expected to be a positive year for the luxury market, with revenues projected to increase by 3% in line with the average growth for personal luxury goods. EBITDA is also expected to increase by 3%. A rebound in travel and a newfound consumer confidence in China could positively impact the market in the second half of the year.

Markets
Europe is expected to grow by 2% in 2025, with weak domestic demand partially offset by tourist flows, especially from the United States. Latin America is expected to grow by 4%, while Japan, after a strong performance in 2024, is slowing down, with growth estimated at +2% due to a weaker yen exchange rate and a potential decline in tourism. China remains uncertain (+3%), as cautious middle-class spending and the housing crisis continue to impact consumer confidence. The government is introducing new aid measures and tax cuts, which could take effect in the latter half of 2025. Asia and China will be critical in determining the overall trajectory of the luxury market.
The Middle East is expected to grow by 5%, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and instability. The Gulf region, particularly Saudi Arabia, remains a major luxury market with large investments in real estate.

Consumers
The focus on experiences and the increasing influence of older luxury consumers over Gen Z remain key trends. Asian consumers are expected to see moderate growth, with spending increasing by 3% in the Asia-Pacific region and 1% in Japan. Americans are expected to be the strongest performers, with an increase of 4.5%. Europeans, who have always been more cautious spenders, are expected to show modest growth of just 2% in 2025.

Product categories
Leather goods are expected to see modest growth of 2% in 2025, while footwear is projected to increase by 1%. Clothing is estimated to grow moderately at +3%, while cosmetics remains one of the strongest performing categories, with an expected growth of 6%. Korea remains a key market for these types of products, with growing loyalty among younger consumers. The positive trend in jewellery continues, with a 4.5% increase, as it remains both a safe-haven and an investment asset (1% increase in watch purchases).

Distribution channels
Physical retail (+5%) remains the strongest-performing channel, driven by the development of new markets. It continues to be a strategic channel for luxury brands, offering personalised services, dedicated showrooms, exclusive sales methods, as well as entertainment and experience areas. Digital retail, expected to grow by 3%, remains intrinsically linked to physical stores and brand-managed platforms, with a focus on Artificial Intelligence.