Report on the state of packaging – August 2016
Quarterly packaging chain observatory. Situation at the end of August 2016.
Below is an indication of the trends of manufacturing industry where the packaging consumption is most intense, divided into food and non food macro areas. This is followed by the relative evolution of the packaging industry.
The evolving picture of the manufacturing sectors is drawn from the sectorial analyses carried out by trade associations and research institutes.
Food industry (food & beverage)
Source: Prometeia
In early 2016, the volume of retail sales of food products was seen to have increased, this set against a slight drop in consumer prices. A trend that could lead to an increase in food consumption (+0.8% at constant prices on a yearly average), favoring the start of a recovery in the market, this also bolstered by a forecast stable growth in incomes. This recovery though is predicted to be modest in the coming years (+ 0.5% on average in the years 2017/18); spending volumes will indeed remain at levels much lower than in 2007 (down 11%).
Cosmetics and perfumery
Source: Cosmetica Italia
For 2016 the association forecasts an overall increase of production (+ 5%), corresponding to an increase in exports (+ 11%) and domestic demand (+ 0.7%).
Fashion industry
Source: Sistema Moda Italia
According to recent study center analyses, in the first six months of 2016 sector growth was around 0.9% (in particular + 0.6% for the textile sector, + 1.1% for clothing/fashion).
Furniture and furnishings
Source: ISTAT
In the first half of 2016 production rose by around 1.5%, driven by exports, which increased in the first half of the year, the increase being estimated at around 4.3%. The same period also witnessed a rise in imports (+ 2.6%).
Chemical products
Source: Federchimica
A good performance in exports, combined with the substantial stability of domestic demand has led to the rise in production levels of the Italian chemical industry in the first half of the year (+ 1.7%).
However, the economic outlook, showing a moderate recovery and full of uncertainties, will not be enough to ensure the continuation of this trend. More likely the industry will stabilize at current levels, with the benefit of a quieter oil market, which should normalize purchasing policies.
It is expected that the continuing growth in exports (+2.5%), albeit at a more moderate pace than in 2015, coupled with the consolidation of domestic demand (+ 1.5%), should allow 2016 to close with an increase of 1,3% in production levels.
Household appliances
Source: ISTAT
In the first six months of 2016 the segment registered a drop in production of 0.5%.
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The economic picture The opinion of Confindustria The current international economic situation is affected by a climate of political uncertainty at European and global level. The expectation of a result for the coming elections, the terrorist attacks, the current conflicts contribute to the fragility of European economic growth. Despite some positive signs, Italy is struggling to set out stably on the road to recovery. In confirmation of this industrial production of the country in the second quarter fell by 0.1%. GDP grew, but at more modest rates than expected, with a rise of + 0.15% set against a forecast of around + 0.25%. On the other hand, SMF manufacturing is speeding up, thanks to the growth in production, orders and exports, rising to 53.5% (+1.1 points). Good news too on the export front, which registers an increase of 2.4% over the last two months, both towards EU countries as well as to countries outside Europe. Consumption trends are positive, although with uncertain prospects. The actual value of family income is holding its own thanks to the weak price trend (-0.4% annually in June). However, in the second quarter, the overall assessment on domestic orders of consumer goods producers fell. In addition a further drop in consumer confidence was registered; hence pre-announcing more cautious spending, estimated to drop 2.3% (June 2016). |
This report has been drawn up using data from the Istituto Italiano Imballaggio database.
