The positive trend of the national packaging sector also confirmed for 2018, in line with a trend that persists since 2014. Average prices of raw materials and production.

According to the main macroeconomic indicators, the recovery of the Italian economy continued in 2018, albeit at a slower pace: both the Confindustria and Prometeia Study Centers recorded positive trends. The forecasts speak of a GDP of +1.1% in 2018, while for 2019 the hypothesis of a slowdown is strengthening, with a growth rate forecast at 0.9%.
On the basis of the latest data available, in 2018 manufacturing activity recorded a 1.7% increase in sales at constant prices (Prometeia analysis), and in 2019 the trend should have a growth of 1.4%.
The packaging sector, closely linked to the performance of manufacturing, is positively affected by this phenomenon, so much so that, in 2018, the turnover exceeded 33.2 billion euros, recording an increase of approximately +2%.
Foreign trade is also “traveling” at a good pace, even if reduced compared to last year, with a growth hypothesis that should settle around + 3.3% for exports, and 4.5% for imports. The balance of the trade therefore continues to remain positive, exceeding 2 billion euros (in practice, Italians continue to export more than they import).
 
Raw material: quotations
As regards the average prices quoted for raw materials used to produce packaging, diversified trends for the various materials are registered.
• In 2018 no quotations were recorded at the Milan Chamber of Commerce for tinplate, both virgin and recycled. This is a situation that has lasted since 21 July 2017 (date of the last survey available), that is since the Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Metals Commission suspended them. This suspension will continue until a new national regulation is created.
• The same condition remains for aluminium as well, but in this case, since July 2017, the Italian Packaging Institute has taken over the quotations of Assomet. As regards aluminium as the raw material used to produce packaging, a decrease of around 2% has been registered; a similar trend in the prices of thin laminates and tapes used to produce capsules or containers.
In relation to recycled aluminium, quotations are lower by 10% on average.
• In 2018, corrugated cardboard prices grew by an average of 9% compared to 2017, while for the raw material used to produce paper bags, the average growth rate is about 7.5%. On the other hand, the average prices of the cellulosic material coming from recycling are on the up.
• Differentiated trends in the prices of plastic polymers have been registered: if the nylon is about +15% and PET at +18%, polystyrene shows an average drop of about 2%, while the price of PVC has increased by 5%; +11% for ABS and an average of +4% for other polymer prices. The decline in polyethylene continues (-6% on average).
• With regard to the prices of polymers from recycling, of note the +20% of the blue rPET and the +10% of the rPET multicolor.
• After years of stability, the price of white glass scrap increases (+3%).
• The price of timber is increasing and recording an average growth of 3%.
 
Production
In quantitative terms, analyzing the tons of packaging produced in 2018, it is assumed a growth of around 2.2% which has led the production of empty packaging in Italy to exceed 16.6 billion tons.
In 2018, domestic demand led the trend in production, a trend confirmed by the growth in imports, which should grow by 6.5%.
At the time of writing, on the basis of an initial preliminary, in 2018 domestic demand should increase by 2.6%. The positive trend of exports continues (+3%) albeit with a growth rate reduced compared to that recorded in 2017.
The trend of packaging users to favor small formats is confirmed, which in fact leads to an increase in the overall weight of packaging. The constant progress of online sales is also giving a positive boost to the production of packaging, especially for corrugated cardboard.
In 2018 there was an increasingly marked trend in the use of bioplastic material for the production of packaging: bags and films are, in this regard, a striking example.
Also from the ready-to-eat food sector comes a propulsive drive for the packaging sector. This type of food consumption is in fact supporting the good growth trends of plastic and aluminium packaging, in particular trays

Data made available by the Istituto Italiano Imballaggio

CORRELATED NEWS  REPORT ON THE STATR OF THE PACKAGING (1)