Report on the state of packaging – May 2016
Four-month survey of the packaging industry. Situation as of late May 2016
Below is a snapshot of the performance of the manufacturing sectors that consume the most packaging, subdivided into the macro-areas of food and non-food, followed by a summary of the packaging sector’s performance.
The data on the performance of the manufacturing sectors is taken from sector analyses carried out by sector associations or by Prometeia.
Food industry: food and beverage
Source: Prometeia
According to the findings of the database of Istituto Italiano Imballaggio, the Italian food industry concluded 2015 with a 2.5% recovery in production following progressive decline during the years 2012-2014.
This recovery is due essentially to two factors: the recovery of consumption by families and the positive effects of EXPO 2015 on Italy’s food industry.
EXPO Milano not only drove up domestic consumption with the profits of the exhibition itself (the flow of foreign tourists was extremely high) but also significantly increased Italian exports.
The 2015 data also shows, however, that the dynamics within the food sector have been varied:
- consumers prefer packaged to fresh products, with a consequent increase in packaging;
- traditional products are losing ground to modern and innovative ones with high service content (4th range fresh fruit and vegetables, ready meals, etc.);
- as for beverages, the climate factor is decisive; 2015’s hot summer has driven an increased consumption of beverages, especially water, flat drinks and beer.
According to Prometeia’s forecasts, there should be an average increase in food consumption in 2016 (+0.8% at constant prices), signaling a recovery of the market thanks to steadily increasing revenues.
The rate of recovery should remain modest over the next few years (+0.5% on average for the two-year period 2017-18), with spending volumes 11% lower than in 2007.
Cosmetics and perfumes
Source: Cosmetica Italia
According to the sector association, 2015 concluded with +2.2% consumption, recovering from a slight decline during 2014 (-0.4%). Exports grew by 14%, while imports grew by +7%.
Thanks to the increased competitiveness of Italian cosmetics enterprises on foreign markets, the trade balance has been further strengthened, touching record levels of 2,000 million euro. By consequence of this excellent performance, the ratio of exports to production has reached 38%: this percentage is growing at a constant rate, but is still relatively low for a sector known for very high service potential and an excellent quality offer.
As for distribution channels, 2015 saw an increase in department store distribution (+2%). Forecasts for 2016 foresee +1.5% consumption, while exports should grow at double digits with 10%.
Pharmaceuticals
Source: Federfarma
In 2015, there were 596 million prescriptions in Italy, the equivalent of 9.8 prescriptions per capita. Italy’s national health service, the SSN, distributed over 850 million drugs, largely analogous to that 2014. On average, each Italian citizen picked up 14 packagings of drugs at the SSN’s expense. Forecasts expect the large influx of immigrants (receiving assistance from the SSN) to bring an increase to consumption in 2016.
Fashion System
Source: Sistema Moda Italia
After two years of decline, 2015 saw a recovery in consumption (+1%). As far as foreign trade is concerned, textiles/fashion grew by 2%, while exports grew by +5%.
Performance forecasts for 2016 foresee a slight drop (-0.5%), according to analyses of orders during the previous three months. Sales abroad are expected to increase by 3% during the same period.
Furniture and decor
Source: World Furniture Outlook 2016 report
According to a report authored by CSIL in collaboration with Federmobile and Prometeia, 2015 finally saw the end of the drop in consumption in this sector thanks to expansive policies provided for in the Stability Law (first and foremost the tax credit for furniture), the cap on inflation and the improved disposable income and consumer confidence of families. Exports continue to rise, even in EU markets (which already saw growth in 2014), in addition to outside Europe.
In Italy, the furniture industry should consolidate in 2016 trends observed during 2015: the domestic market will begin to show signs of recovery (+1.2% in real terms), sustained by strongly performing sales on international markets, in spite of a slowdown in foreign demand.
Chemical products
Source: Federchimica
With prices dropping somewhat, the Italian chemical industry saw a recovery of production by volume in 2015 (+1.0%), which remains very gradual and still does not involve all buyer sectors. The recovery from the recession is also confirmed by the stabilization of employment and steadily declining recourse to social security funds (down -34%, excluding special dispensations), also visible in the extraordinary component (-37%). The recovery is however struggling to consolidate internationally, where although it is growing, it remains plagued by risks and uncertainty.
2016 forecasts do not foresee an acceleration of growth since users are very cautious about new acquisitions. In Italy the growth in production should consolidate at 1.4%.
Electric appliances
Source: ISTAT
The 2015 data show a 1% increase in production. Looking at the first fiscal quarter of 2016, the sector is growing by 0.8% compared to the same period during previous years.
Construction materials
During the course of 2015, the long recession of construction in Italy began showing the first signs of recovery. As is known, the construction sector also includes materials (cement, concrete, bricks, steel rebar for reinforced concrete, etc.). During the last six years, the sector’s production has dropped by 26%, and during the years before that period the trend was already far from satisfactory. According to analyses conducted by Prometeia, since 2015, the activity in this sector of the construction industry, and thus also that of materials destined for construction, should see a gradual recovery, with modest rates of growth: +0.2% in 2015, +1.3% in 2016 and +2% in 2017.
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The economic outlook Reflections on the analyses of Confindustria and Prometeia The opinion of Confindustria. In the global economic outlook, some disappointing trends have emerged which are however less worrisome than those of some months ago. The IMF has further reduced its forecasts for global growth (3.2% in 2016); this rate is slightly lower than the long-term trend (3.5% in 1980-2015) and should be consolidated by coordinated international policy making use of all available leverage. Unfortunately, such action has not been possible to implement even within the EU, where it would be necessary in order to contrast centrifugal forces and populist/nationalist movements. The analyses of Prometeia. The Italian manufacturing industry’s turnover should grow by 2.1% in 2016 at constant prices, with a greater balance among sectors compared to 2015. This growth is driven especially by domestic demand, consumption in particular. |
*Note
The data used in this report are taken from the database of Istituto Italiano Imballaggio.Istituto Italiano Imballaggio.
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