Report on the state of packaging – Data 2019 (1)
Four-monthly observatory of the packaging chain: situation at the beginning of December 2019. First results of the year and growth anticipations.
Barbara Iascone
Italian Packaging Institute
Here is a cross-section of the performance of the manufacturing industry sectors where the consumption of packaging is more intense - with their consequent evolution - divided into the food and non-food macro-areas.
The evolutionary pictures of the manufacturing sectors are taken from the sectoral analyses elaborated by trade associations, from the Italian Packaging Institute database or by Prometeia.
Broadscale consumption
With a growth in 2019 of over 3%, in the following two years the sector will be strongly influenced by the positive trend of exports, reaching an average annual growth of +1.7%.
Food and beverages
According to the analyses of Federalimentare referring to the first 10 months of the year, the 2019 of the food sector as a whole should have closed with a growth of 3.2%, at values for the same amount of days worked. The data processing prospects a final turnover in 2019 of 145 billion euros, + 3.6% compared to 2018: performance remains closely linked to exports, given that the made in Italy sector continues to be highly appreciated the world over.
According to Prometeia’s analyses, the outlook for the 2020-21 two-year period is around +1% of turnover at constant prices: a moderate but dynamic growth that will still benefit from the positive effects of exports.
Non Food
Pharmaceuticals. The pharmaceutical sector is among the most dynamic in the manufacturing industry in 2019 with a growth rate of around +2% and for the two-year period 2020-21 the sector should confirm the trend (+2.2%): the average annual growth at constant prices will continue to benefit from the growth path undertaken thanks to investments in new production capacity, mainly by leveraging on exports.
Fashion system. After a recovery in 2019 with a growth rate of turnover at constant prices above +2%, a reduction (+1%) is expected for the two-year period 2020-21.
Cosmetics and perfumery. As for the cosmetics sector, a growth in global turnover for 2019 of +2.9% is confirmed. The more than positive exports certainly contribute to the trend (in 2019 the trend should be around +4.5%), but also the domestic market which, with +1.5%, provides a good contribution to the sector.
Furniture and furnishings. 2019 registers a growth in turnover at constant prices of +1%, which will also be confirmed for the following two years.
Chemical products. According to Federchimica, based on the analysis of the first 10 months of 2019, the Italian chemical sector has shown signs of a downtown. Projecting the results for the whole year, it should be -0.4%. The data at European level show a -0.8% overall (only Germany shows a -3.4%).
The relative strength of Italy is linked to the strong specialization of Italian industry. The specialized chemistry sub-sector, which accounts 58% of national production, registered a less negative trend than basic chemistry.
Mechanics (agricultural machines, machine tools, special purpose machines, energy machines). According to Prometeia, the performance of this sector in 2019 turns out to be among the best in the Italian manufacturing sector, with a trend that should reach around +3%. The following two years should confirm the good growth rates, leading to a further +2.8% annual average.
Domestic appliances. Among the less performing sectors of 2019 we find household appliances, which register a small +0.6%; the situation is not expected to change in 2020.
Building materials. According to Prometeia’s analyses, in 2019 construction materials should register a +1.8%, which will also be confirmed in the following two years.
General economic picture
According to the latest IMF calculations, in 2020 the world economy will grow by 3.4% (-0.1% compared to the forecasts disclosed in mid-2019 and after +3% in the year just ended).
The drop in GDP will also affect Italy, where the IMF assumes a growth of 0.5%, while the mid-year forecasts give an Italian GDP growth of 0.8%. It is also assumed that in 2020 Germany will register a 1.2% growth in GDP: even in this case, growth forecasts are down compared to the previous ones. As for the Eurozone, a growth in GDP of 1.4% is expected in 2020 (1.2% in 2019).
US mid-year forecasts confirm a 2020 GDP of +2.1%, even showing an improvement on forecasts. The emerging Asian countries registered a + 5.9% in 2019 and a +6% for 2020.
According to Confindustria
Based on the analyses carried out by the Confindustria research office, we are in a phase of stagnation, a trend confirmed in the fourth quarter of 2019 and which should also continue in the first quarter of 2020. In the autumn months, according to entrepreneurs, there was a low industrial activity due to the slowdown of both components of demand. The foreign one, which had already shown a certain weakness in the previous months, resulted in a further slowdown, especially in the automotive sector. As far as domestic demand is concerned, one needs to distinguish household consumption - which after having grown by 0.4% in the third quarter, is seen to have grown more slowly in the months of October and November - from investments, which continue in their decline already begun in the summer months.
According to Prometeia
Based on the latest calculations disclosed by Prometeia, 2019 remains stable, registering a trend in manufacturing activity turnover which should settle at +0.2% (turnover at constant prices). There is a great variety in sector performance, the best performances being put in by pharmaceutical and mass consumption sectors, thanks above all to demand from foreign markets. Building trade markets also performed well.
The least dynamic sectors are motor vehicles and motorcycles, including the various related sectors.
As far as the next two years are concerned, according to Prometeia, the Italian manufacturing industry should recover, registering a growth of +1.3% on average per year at constant prices. Trend that will be influenced by the recovery of international trade, but also by the growth in domestic demand. In this case, it will be the “motor vehicles and motorbikes” sector, with related intermediate sectors, that will restore vigor to the performance of the entire manufacturing sector. The pharmaceutical and mechanical sector also put in a good showing.
The data used for the preparation of the report is derived from the Italian Packaging Institute database.
