2018: goodbye fear!

In an end of year 2017 survey, COOP asked Italians which words best represent their expectations for the coming year, and the results were very positive. Words like “crisis” dropped to the bottom of the ranking, replaced by optimistic expressions like hope, recovery and change. And with rising spirits comes rising consumption: +15.6% at Christmas.

* THE “COOP REPORT” is published by the research center of Ancc-Coop (National Association of Consumer Coops), with the scientific support of REF Ricerche, supporting analysis by Nielsen and original contributions by Iri Information Resources, GFK, Demos, Nomisma and Pwc, Mediobanca research center, Crif and BeMyEye, with scientific support of Ref. Available at www.italiani.coop.

While in 2016 and 2017 “hope” was the key word with which Italians labeled the year to come, 2018 arrives under the blessing of “wellbeing”, the word most commonly used by Italians to describe their expectations. “Recovery”, already announced a year ago, is consolidating, to the detriment of “new” and “satisfaction”.

Italians’ spirits are looking up for 2018, then, according to the end of year snapshot provided by Coop-Nomisma and the consumption forecasts of the Coop Report* (from which the tables shown in this article are drawn).
Of the words Italians use to describe the coming year, terms with negative connotations like “fear” and “crisis” have dropped off (10% and 7.6% for 2017, respectively, now both at 4.5%, and the comparison is even starker when using data from just two years ago, when very few lights could be seen at the end of the tunnel). Gains have been made by “recovery” (15.4%), “change” (15.1%), “wellbeing” (10.3%), and “new” (7.9%). Respondents over 50 express more faith in the positive outlook than younger and evidently less satisfied ones. The country’s south is the pioneer of “recovery” (which reaches 18% in this region).

Let there be optimism! The optimism is evidenced by comparing projected spending in 2017 and 2018. Consumers expect to increase spending in all areas, but the biggest leaps were in leisure, travel and personal pleasure. Italians’ traditional love for the home has also made a recovery, with increased expected spending on furniture, remodeling and large appliances. Well-informed as they are, Italians have also included bills, utilities and health services among rising costs in their budgets.

Compared to 2017, spending will be... Already 2017 proved to go better than expected in terms of consumption, reaching 1.5% growth. Hopes are thus also high for 2018, thanks to the rising purchasing power of Italian families, which should reach a growth rate of roughly 1%. According to estimates, this glass half-full will mostly affect audiovisual equipment, computers and accessories (+8.5% in 2018), telephones and accessories (+7.8%) and only partially food (+2.1%).

According to the updated survey, growth will continue to be positive (+1%) but at half the rate of 2017, a year marked by an exceptional climatic effect.

Strong performance is also expected for packaged consumer goods (+1.3%) and fresh fruit and vegetables (+1.6%), while non-food will continue to see negative growth (-3.7%). In terms of regions, the 2017 trend is expected to be inverted. Following a period during which the South outperformed the national average, more solid turnover growth is now being seen in northern Italy (+1.2% and +1.4% in the northwest and northeast of the country).

In the meantime, 2017 ended with booming Christmas sales, the week of Christmas logging +15.6% (Nielsen data on supermarkets and hypermarkets for Coop) over the same week the previous year. More meat than fish, a lot of gastronomy and cheeses, with south-central Italy leading the ranking of purchases (Campania in the lead with +16.2%, followed by Molise, Umbria and Puglia). Moving against the trend, but justified by the Christmas effect is the +9.7% logged by non-food sectors (toys, electronics, etc.).