Packaging machines: first quarter 2019 Quarterly survey of the Centro Studi Ucima

According to the first quarterly survey conducted by the Centro Studi Ucima, 2019 opens with some shade. The months of assured production, stable with respect to the average of the year just ended, and the trend of production prices substantially confirm the good health of the sector, but it is the decline in the order collection in the first quarter that requires some attention.

Production. In the first quarter of 2019, the index of total turnover expressed at current prices recorded an increase of 4.4% compared to the same period of the previous year, against an increase in sales both on the domestic market (+ 11.7% ) and on international markets (+ 2.8%).
The months of assured production, stable with respect to the average of the year just ended, and the trend of production prices substantially confirm the good health of the sector, but it is the decline in the order collection in the first quarter that requires careful monitoring. In any case, operators’ expectations for the coming months remain good, both on the domestic and foreign markets.
The order book of companies stood at 6.3 months of assured production, in line with the last quarters.
Producer prices are substantially stable. In the first quarter of 2019, the tendential variation in prices was equal to + 1.8% over the same period of the previous year.

Orders and expectations. According to the Ucima Economic Survey (monthly analysis of order collection prepared by the Research Department), in the first quarter of 2019 total orders fell by 16.5% compared to the same period in 2018. In particular, domestic figures are down 12.4%, while foreign orders fell by 18.2%.
However, entrepreneurs’ expectations on order collection for the second quarter of 2019 are still mostly positive.
With regard to orders taken on the Italian market, only 7.1% of the companies in the sample expect results to fall, more than half of the companies (64.3%) expect stability, while the remaining 28.6% expect growth for the second quarter of 2019.
 Expectations on foreign order collection are in line with those for the domestic market. In fact, 28.6% of companies expect to receive a higher order in the second quarter of 2019 than in the previous period. On the other hand, 14.3% of the companies in the sample have expectations of a decline, while 57.1% expect stable results.