Report on the State of Packaging
The year 2025 marked a slow but steady recovery for the Italian economy. GDP grew by 0.5%, reflecting a phase of stabilisation in which household consumption and investments served as the main drivers of growth.
The labour market showed greater resilience than GDP, with employment estimated to increase by 1.1% and unemployment stabilising around 6%. Wages displayed signs of recovery, while inflation remained moderate (+1.7%), supported by lower energy costs. Industrial production, although stable overall, recorded a positive rebound at the end of the year.
According to Prometeia’s analyses (October 2025), the Italian manufacturing sector will close the year with a 1% contraction in turnover at constant prices. However, the decline is less pronounced than in the previous two years, suggesting a possible trend reversal.
Foreign trade and import-export dynamics
Italian exports were affected by geopolitical tensions and weak European demand, the country’s main outlet market. After a dynamic first half (+2.6% from January to July, supported by early shipments to the US due to tariff concerns), the second half of the year saw a sharp slowdown, ending with a modest +0.9%. At the same time, imports increased, especially from European partners, contributing to a less favourable trade balance.
Impacts on the packaging supply chain
The packaging supply chain is closely linked to the performance of key manufacturing sectors, particularly food, beverages, mass consumption goods, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics. In 2025, the cosmetics sector stood out with robust growth (+5%), driven by exports (+7%) and expanding domestic demand (+3.3%). Pharmaceuticals recorded an increase in turnover (+4%) despite a slight decline in volumes (-0.5%), while food and beverages grew more moderately (+1.8%). Construction products and materials saw marginal growth (+0.5%), whereas negative trends emerged for mass consumption goods (-1.5%), chemical intermediates and metallurgy (-2%), fashion (-3.5%), and household appliances.
In 2026-27, Italian manufacturing is expected to return to growth, albeit at a moderate pace, with an average annual increase of 1% at constant prices. In a global context still marked by uncertainty, the improvement in European demand will be crucial, helping offset the weakness of extra-European trade and supporting a recovery in Italy’s manufacturing trade balance.
Production performance
After the divergent trends seen in 2024 (+1.1% in volumes and -1.5% in turnover), the first estimates for the 2025 provisional results indicate a more linear alignment between the two measures. The data for the year just ended were developed by analysing trends and figures from the first ten months provided by ISTAT and correlating them with the 2024 results. In 2025, Italian production of empty packaging is expected to exceed 17.7 million tonnes, up 2.5% compared to 2024. Sector turnover should recover the losses of the previous year, reaching over 38 billion euros (+1%). Import growth remains significant: domestic demand will be supported not only by Italian production but also, above all, by a 19% increase in imports. The negative trade balance for packaging continues to worsen. Exports are also expected to grow, though at a much slower pace (+3.6%).
Growth drivers
Production growth will involve all materials, with the sole exception of plastics, which, according to current data, should remain stable. The main growth drivers will be the end-use sectors, particularly cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, which will continue to support demand for both plastic and glass packaging. Innovation focused on sustainability will also play a decisive role, with investments in refillable bottles and reusable packaging, generating positive effects on the wood packaging supply chain as well, especially pallets, crates, and reusable containers. Finally, the ecological transition, with increasing attention to sustainable and circular packaging solutions, remains a strategic factor for the competitiveness of the entire supply chain.
These drivers will continue to support growth in 2026–27, which is expected to stabilise at an average annual rate of +2%, a scenario also supported by Prometeia’s forecasts for manufacturing activity. By 2027, packaging production is expected to once again exceed 18 million tonnes.
The year 2025 is shaping up as a period of consolidation for the packaging sector, characterised by moderate yet widespread growth, supported by resilient domestic demand and a recovery in exports. The ability to adapt to the evolving needs of end-use sectors, innovate in materials and processes, and maintain a strong focus on sustainability will be key to strengthening the sector’s competitiveness in the medium term, drivers that will continue to shape the following two-year period.
It is important to highlight that, when analysing packaging production in tonnes, the ongoing policy of reducing the weight of individual packaging items must be taken into account. This trend has already led, and will increasingly lead, to inevitable reductions in total production volumes expressed in tonnes.
