Four-month observatory of the packaging chain: situation in July 2017. Information on the global economic picture is drawn from the data proposed by Confindustria and Prometeia.

Here follows a breakdown of the trends of manufacturing industry subgroups where packaging consumption is most intense, divided into food and non-food macro areas. This is followed by an account of the relative evolution of the packaging sector.
The medium-term evolution of the sectors for 2017 derives from the elaborations of the Italian Packaging Institute on data from Confindustria, Prometeia and the main sector industry associations.
 
FOOD
Food and Beverage
(Source: Federalimentare)
From Confederation data on ISTAT figures, after the + 1.1% registered in 2016 in 2015, the entire food, beverage and tobacco industry sector is seen to have shown a continued growth by 1.1% in the first five months of the year (January/May). Analysing the various sectors, the fresh and processed vegetable processing and  preservation industry grew by 4.8%, while that of grain processing by 6%.
In contrast, the fish, crustacean and shellfish processing and preservation industry showed a drop (-4.8%) along with cheese and dairy industry (-1.6%).
Bakery and flour products grew by 0.5%, with an internal peak in the biscuits, crackers and packed patisserie product categories (+ 4.6%).
As for the beverage industry all told, a growth of 4% was seen, but soft drinks dropped by 3.3% while  beer grew (+ 10%) along with spirits and distillates (+ 25%). Wine showed a drop of 1.6%.

NON FOOD
Cosmetics
(Source: Centro Studi Cosmetica Italia)
According to Cosmetica Italia’s analysis, the sector will close 2017 with a growth of 5%, driven by an acceleration of exports that will grow by 9.5%. The Italian cosmetics market should show a + 1.2% in value, but in terms of volume generalised physiological drops have been registered. Pharmaceuticals
(Source: Federfarma)
In 2016 there was a decrease in both contractual pharmaceutical expenses (-2.4% compared to 2015) and the number of prescriptions served by pharmacies under contractual agreement (-1.5%).
However, both the expense and the prescriptions of drug dispensed by pharmacies on behalf of the Italian health service (ASL) are growing: + 8.3% the former and + 9.7% the latter.
Distribution on behalf is a way of dispensing certain categories of pharmaceutical products via local pharmacies. In practice, the local ASLs purchase these drugs directly and instead of dispensing them to the patients through the hospital pharmacies, do so via the local pharmacies.
In this way patients who have been discharged from the various wards and who have to undergo specific pharmacological treatments according to the decision of the specialist, can immediately withdraw the first pack at the hospital pharmacy, while the remaining packs are dispensed at their regular pharmacies.
In the first quarter of 2017 national health spending was + 2.6% over the same period of 2016. This increase is accompanied, on the one hand, by an increase in the average price of prescribed medicines (+ 2%), on the other by an increase in prescriptions (+ 0.6%).
The first partial data of the first months of the second quarter confirm the trend of the first quarter.

Furniture and Furnishings
(Source: “Furniture Market Forecast Report for 2017”)
As regards the Italian market, the year 2016 registered +1.3%, accompanied by a positive trend in exports. Although characterized by some uncertainty, in 2017 the domestic market should close with 1% growth.
The incentives to support the industry in 2016 should be reconfirmed in 2017, thus supporting internal consumption. As far as exports are concerned, the prospect of a slight depreciation of the euro against the dollar will have a positive effect on Italian sales abroad, though the sector has to account for a slowdown in foreign demand.
There is, however a recovery in demand from the Middle Eastern countries, while the recovery in demand from European countries will be smaller. There are still problems on the Russian market, up to  few years ago, was a very important outlet for Italian exports. Exports are expected to increase by 1.8%.

Chemical Products
(Source: Federchimica)
After a 2016 featuring ups and downs and that closed with a production with volumes up 1.5%, but with discontinuous trends and falling prices, in 2017, the signs of improvement strengthened. In the first part of the year, the chemical sector has seen positive trends in almost all segments, with a global trend of + 2.8%. Exports for the quarter can also boast a positive trend, +11% due to the increase in international demand and a weakened euro.
The prospects for the first half of 2017 show a growth in production of around 3%.

Fashion System
(Source: Sistema Moda Italia SMI)
2016 closed with an acceleration of the entire segment (0.9%) mainly guided by the  clothing-fashion area (the textile industry is stable compared to 2015). Exports are up by 1.7% while imports are up 1.3%.
SMI, along with the Carlo Cattaneo university Castellanza, has devised an ad hoc econometric model to estimate sector growth.  
Their readings estimate that in 2017 the positive growth trend will continue, as in 2016, with slightly better performances. In the first quarter the trend was already seen to be at +1.8%.    

The packaging sector

Barbara Iascone
Istituto Italiano Imballaggio