Report on the state of packaging – Data 2020 (3)
Four-monthly observatory of the packaging supply chain: situation updated to September 2021.
Barbara Iascone
Italian Packaging Institute
This report provides a cross-section of the trend of the manufacturing industry sectors where the consumption of packaging is most intense - and their consequent evolution - divided into food and non-food macro-areas.
The evolutionary frameworks of the manufacturing sectors have been taken from sector analyses elaborated by trade associations, the databank of the Italian Packaging Institute or Prometeia.
In general, we can say that the sectors that, even at the beginning of the pandemic, registered positive inputs (food and beverages, FMCG, pharmaceuticals), now reveal a physiological slowdown. Other sectors that were hardest hit during the same period are currently registering a more energetic recovery; this is the case of the construction area and its allied industries (intermediates, furniture, etc.). It is interesting to analyze, sector by sector, how much the Italian manufacturing industry has recovered compared to the pre-covid period, comparing the trends of the period January-May 2021 with the period January-May 2019.
It should be noted that both food and FMCG were affected by changes in purchasing habits in times of pandemic: once the so-called “stock effect” of the period of greatest restrictions (with the accumulation of pasta, flours, canned food, household cleaning products) vanished, the purchasing trend returned to normal.
Food industry (food and beverages)
As previously mentioned, this is among the areas of production that was least affected by the negative effects of the pandemic. Despite the constraints on the entire Ho.Re.Ca sector, the sector registered a recovery, compared with the pre-covid period, of +3.6%.
FMCG
This sector encompasses all goods for domestic use that are commonly purchased from largescale retail outlets, from food products to personal and household care, through to “semi-durable” goods (clothing, books and newspapers, etc.). In short, it is a vast area with “extensive use” of packaging.
Here the gap between 2019 and 2021 is negative (the trend in 2021 is -1.6% compared to the same period in 2019).
Pharmaceutical sector
After registering positive rates even during the lockdown - the only manufacturing sector to do so - the sector experienced a natural slowdown, up to reaching stability. If we compare the period January-May 2021 with that of 2019, the gap turns out to be +0.4%.
Construction supply chain
Thanks to government incentives and the newfound interest in the home environment due to the months of forced confinement, this macro area has given an important boost to the recovery of manufacturing. The “furniture and furnishings” sector alone led to a recovery of +11.3%, while the household appliances sector registered +25.7%. Also significant was the recovery from the pre-COVID period for building materials (+9.6%), and chemical intermediates also performed well (+11.7%).
Fashion sector
Still in difficulty, the fashion system is among the few that has not yet recovered (- 13%).
Cosmetics and perfumery
Hit hard in 2020, we are witnessing a significant recovery of the sector in the first half of 2021, with a registered growth of 8%.
General economic picture
According to Confindustria
According to Prometeia
The packaging sector
At the time of writing this analysis, the final figures for 2020 can be communicated.
In the estimates released in the previous months we rated a sector with losses of around 3%; in the final balance we can state that things have gone better than that.
In 2020, the production of packaging (including MSW bags) expressed by weight should settle at around 16,620 t/000, marking a decline of around -1.7% compared to 2019.
Turnover, which is expected to be around 33 billion euros, is down by around 2.8%.
Contributing to reducing the losses is the performance of the sectors with the greatest use of packaging; in fact, in some areas of manufacturing, the demand for packaging has not fallen considerably.
2018 | 2019 | var. 19/18 | 2020 | var. 20/19 | |
Turnover mln euros | 33,187 | 33,976 | 2.40% | 33,034 | -2.80% |
Production (t/000) | 16,536 | 16,934 | 2.40% | 16,623 | -1.80% |
Exports (t/000) | 2,895 | 2,922 | 0.90% | 2,843 | -2.70% |
Imports (t/000) | 2,023 | 2,139 | 5.70% | 2,080 | -2.80% |
Apparent usage (t/000) | 15,664 | 16,151 | 3.10% | 15,860 | -1.80% |
Fonte/Source: Imballaggio in cifre
Analyzing the various materials, the positive trends of rigid laminated packaging with a prevalence of paper as well as steel packaging stand out, where production grew by +6% and +3.5% respectively.
For both these types of packaging, the more than good performance of the food preserve sector has indeed been crucial. Paper and cardboard packaging also registered an upswing: production expressed in tons grew by 1.1%.
The production of plastic packaging showed a drop (-3%), a trend largely influenced by the -4% in the production of flexible packaging. Rigid plastic packaging, bottles and flacons, were in fact seen to be substantially stable.
Foreign trade showed downtrends both in exports (-2.7%) and imports (-2.8%). The trade balance remains positive: with a value of approximately 763,000 tons, Italy continues to export more than she imports.
Apparent utilization, which does not take into account the movement of stock, has dropped by 1.6%.
All in all, we can consider the packaging industry as an area showing good health, which has been able to withstand and deal with a major social/economic crisis.
As regards the prices of raw materials used to produce packaging, in the first half of 2021 they are all on the rise. The first six months of the year saw price rises for all types of material (both virgin and recycled raw materials), this without distinction.
Outlook for 2021-23
Based on initial analysis for 2021, the sector should show a recovery that should lead to recover the losses of 2020, with production growing by 1%. With an average annual growthrate of +0.4%, in 2023 packaging production in Italy should exceed 17,300 t/000.