Mercosur: an economic giant held back by politics but driven by the numbers
While the EU awaits the final green light for the agreement, market data confirm the strategic role of the region for Italian packaging machinery manufacturers. Political uncertainty favours Asian competitors
by Luca Baraldi e Generoso Verrusio
The vote by the European Parliament, which at the end of January decided to seek an opinion from the Court of Justice on the partnership agreement with Mercosur, caused a sudden and unexpected slowdown in a dossier that seemed to be nearing completion. In this already complex scenario, last Friday the European Commission announced its intention to proceed with the provisional application of the trade agreement with the Latin American organisation that brings together Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.
There are many interesting opportunities on the horizon for the Italian packaging machinery and technology sector. We asked Mecs for an exclusive analysis and in-depth study – continuing the structured collaboration that has linked ItaliaImballaggio to the Ucima research centre for the past year – to understand the scope of these opportunities.
A €1.5 billion market
The 2024 figures – representing the latest complete, validated dataset and a methodologically sound basis for a reliable, unbiased analysis of the Mercosur area – outline a landscape of significant opportunity. The packaging market across the region (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Guyana and Suriname) has reached an overall value of approximately €1.48 billion.
Brazil confirms its position as the undisputed hub of the region, with a domestic market exceeding €716 million, followed by Argentina at around €179 million. What makes the area strategically indispensable for Italian packaging machinery manufacturers, however, are its medium-term growth prospects. Projections for the five-year period 2025–2029 point to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% for Argentina and 3.6% for Brazil, with Peru posting a robust 5.3%.
Food & Beverage driving demand
Companies operating in the food and beverage industries together account for more than 60% of the region’s total market. The food sector alone absorbs 34.2% of supplies, with investment peaks concentrated in Brazil and Argentina, while beverages follow with a 27.9% share. Beyond the food & beverage giants, segments such as pharmaceuticals (13.7%) and chemicals (5.6%) are demonstrating increasing dynamism, calling for increasingly specialised packaging solutions capable of meeting stringent regulatory requirements.
Filling and FFS Technologies in the Lead
In terms of machinery types, demand is clearly oriented towards filling solutions and Form-Fill-Seal (FFS) systems, which together account for more than 40% of market share. Filling machines top the ranking with 21.2% of installations, closely followed by FFS systems at 20.9%. There is also growing interest in end-of-line phases, with cartoning (11.8%) and palletising (11.5%) on an upward trajectory.
Italian leadership and the Eastern challenge
Against this backdrop of strong momentum, Italy’s leadership is unequivocal. In 2024, MECS data confirm that Italy once again ranked as the leading exporter of packaging machinery to Mercosur countries, with a value exceeding €338 million and growth of 12.2% compared with 2023. The gap with its main European competitors is significant: Germany, the second-largest exporter, stands at €209 million, with marginal growth of 0.9%, while Spain trails at a considerable distance with €75 million.
However, the real warning signal comes from the East. China now occupies the third step of the podium, with exports totalling €142 million and a year-on-year increase of 21.2%.
This is clear evidence – if further proof were needed – that in the absence of a stable regulatory framework such as that ensured by a free trade agreement, Asian competition is ready to fill the space left by the uncertainties of the Old Continent.
A long and winding road
Contacts between the EU and Mercosur began in 1999, yet over the past 25 years negotiations have repeatedly stalled over a wide range of agricultural and environmental issues. On 17 January, the EU signed the agreement with the four founding Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). However, just a few days later, on 21 January, the European Parliament requested that the text be referred to the Court of Justice of the European Union for an opinion on the agreement’s compatibility with EU law.
Taken together, the EU and Mercosur would form the largest free trade area in the world, a potential market of more than 700 million consumers. In 2024, the EU was Mercosur’s second-largest trading partner, with trade in goods accounting for almost 17% of the bloc’s total. In the same year, the value of bilateral trade exceeded €111 billion, comprising €55.2 billion in EU exports and €56 billion in imports, an increase in trade flows of more than 36% compared with 2014.
