Report on the state of packaging – Data 2017 (2)
Quarterly observatory of the packaging supply chain: situation in May 2018. The information on the economic situation is taken from the data drawn up by Confindustria, Prometeia and the Istituto Italiano Imballaggio. Barbara Iascone
Here we can summarize a glimpse of the performance of the manufacturing industry sectors where packaging consumption is more intense: hence manufacturing industry trends remain the most significant indicator to understanding how the packaging industry will have to react.
Leading the manufacturing activity in the medium term will be the mechanical sector, characterized by a growth rate at constant prices beyond the norm with a +4.2%. This trend will also be confirmed in the following two years, driven essentially by exports.
The sectors with high technological content also show positive growth: the FMG sector should close 2018 with +2.6%, and that of motor vehicles and motorcycles with +2.3%.
The trends in the pharmaceutical and electrotechnical sectors were also positive, both with a +2.2% increase.
Forecasts for the metallurgy sector take into account the situation of uncertainty related to the outcome of the restructuring of the Italian steel sector.
The various intermediate goods sectors will be affected by the disappearance of the inventory cycle that characterized and sustained the activity in 2017. Specifically, the “other intermediates and chemical intermediates” area will grow by 1.7%, while “Construction products and materials” by 1.2%. Even for these sectors, however, there are glimpses of growth on foreign markets, where Italian companies will benefit from the increase in competitiveness resulting from restructuring in recent years, with the appearance of new technologically advanced production lines.
The other sectors also show an upturn though at lower rates than the manufacturing average: the “Fashion System” should put in a +1.5%, “Furniture” and “Food and Beverages” +1.3%.
Electronics and Household Appliances bring up the rear, with rates below +1.
Trends in the sectors in the medium-term for 2018 (Istituto Italiano Imballaggio processing of data drawn up by Prometeia)
The general economic picture According to Confindustria
Based on the final analysis for 2017, Italy’s GDP closed with +1.4%. Italian exports in 2017 grew by 6.3% over 2016, both compared to the countries within (+4.9%) and outside (+7.3%) the euro area. Employment has also recovered: 2017 closed with 236 thousand more people employed than in the last quarter of 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 10.9% at the end of 2017 compared to 11.8% a year earlier. As for the first months of 2018, the situation is as follows.
In the first quarter, industrial production fell by 0.5% in February, after the decline in January; orders are slightly down, but the trend is growing; services are slowing, according to the March PMI index, even if levels remain high. This could lead to a slowdown in GDP in the first quarter, after +0.3% at the end of 2017.
As for Italian exports, there was a drop in February, concentrated in non-EU countries. In March manufacturing orders from abroad grew, albeit weakly. Domestic demand at the beginning of the year was weaker, consumption is supported by the increase in disposable income and reduced inflation, but held back by an increase in the propensity to save.
According to Prometeia
On the basis of Prometeia’s analysis (data available in May 2018), manufacturing activity will grow in 2018 at a rate of 2.4%. Growth that will also be confirmed for 2019 at +2.1%. Over recent years the Italian manufacturing industry has undergone sizeable renewal, which has made the Italian industrial system more competitive. After filing away a highly positive 2017, with a +2.9% marking the best post-crisis performance in the first part of 2018 signs of a slowing down emerged, mainly due to the political uncertainty that has characterized the country for several months. For the two year period 2020-2022 Prometeia expects a growth rate of 1.8%.
